This Post is for people like me who come to know of most of the election news from office lunch time talk , from friends who follow the political drama religiously and from the glances at newspaper headlines in the everyday rush. As Iam not abreast with current state of affairs in Indian politics I did a bit of googling so that i could formulate an opinion on what was different in this election ,what was new and jotted down for many more like me out there.
Lets begin with the basic stats
UPA :262
INC 206
DMK 18
OTHERS 38
NDA : 159
BJP 116
JD(U) 20
OTHERS 23
THRD FRNT : 66
BSP 21
LEFT 22
BJD 14
OTHERS 9
4th FRONT : 56
SP 22
ADMK 9
OTHERS 25
The major change observed in the voting patterns from the general election of 2004 is that the Congress has made serious inroads into the vote banks of the so called third front and fourth front parties rather than BJP(even though it has strengthened its presence in BJP strongholds).
The 2004 general election saw the BJP garnering 138 seats while Left ,SP,RJD,BSP and other 3rd/4th front parties won 60,39,21 & 17 seats repectively making their total 137.In the 2009 election the BJP's total has reduced to around 116 ,mainly due to inroads made by Congress in Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh.The major change is in the total seats garnered by Left,SP,RJD
,BSP which dropped from a majestic 137 to around 70 with RJD not even being in the picture.It is precisely this fall of around 60 votes that has landed into the UPA kitty.
The Major states reponsible for this landslide victory for the UPA are UP, Rajasthan,West Bengal,Kerala & Andhra Pradesh.The Stratergic alliance by congress with NCP in Maharashtra & with DMK in tamilnadu also helped in winning crucial seats. Let me put in a small note as to what happened in each of the above mentioned states which tilted the 2009 general election in congress party's favour.
Uttar Pradesh
1. The Extensive Campaign by Rahul Gandhi played a important role in congress improving its hold over the region.He toured almost the entire of UP unlike earlier campiangns which were restricted to in & around the congress strongholds of Amethi and Rae bareili .His stress on Youth playing a more important role in politics found many takers .
2.The electorate sick of Mayawati's misrule had no option but to go for congress as there was nothing done by SP in recent times which would have shifted the votes to them .
3. Mayawatis Prime minister ambitions and her neglect of state affairs in favour of her roadmap to the PM office proved disastarous
Rajasthan
The anti incumbency factor failed to hurt the congress here as they won a good number of seats.
1.The last ditch effort by BJP to make Narendra Modi to campaign in Rajasthan backfired.Modi's aggressive speeches against the minority communities developed a sense of insecurity among the Muslim voters ( a sizeable number) who voted against BJP. BJP should have moved slowly in a liberal state like Rajasthan.
2. BJP's campaign was mostly based on anti terrorism and they projected it as an attack against a community .The electorate saw terrorism as a war against a nation and attributed it to pakistan. As history has shown during crisis people rally around the government .They saw the BJP move as a step towards weaking the govt and hence may have voted against them
West Bengal
1.The governments handling of mysterious death of Rizwanur Rehman turned the muslims in the urban belt away.
2.The Sachar commitee report which stated that the Left had done nothing for development of Bengal for last 32 years alienated a lot of hardcore traditional Leftist voters.
3.The forcidble land acquisitions at singur and nandirgram further alienated muslims who form a major part of rural farmers and are usually a Left votebank.
4.Finally the arrognance of the CPM and the firebrand politics of mamta banerjee delivered the final blow to left.
Kerala
1. The LDF which had a resoundig victory in the 2006 state assembly elections lost out mainly because of the infighting between the CPI[M] State secretary Pinarayi VIjayan and theChiefMinsiter V.S.Achutanandan.Pinarayi Vijayan is infamous for his close relations with unscrupulous Industrialists and Real estate Mafia.The electorate which had voted LDF to a resounding victory were tired with infighting and decided to serve the ruling party a warning.
2.The ploy of parading Abdul Nasser in a public meetings of LDF with an aim of garnering the muslim votes backfired.Abdul nasir is considered to be still connected to jihadists and his presence might have consolidated the hindu votes against the LDF.
Andhra Pradesh
1. YSR is undoubtedly the star in this important state.Inspite of the rampant corruption in the goverment his schemes and its implementation in rural areas were greatly appreciated.Even though the government werent upto the mark the electorate were satisfied with its performance and didnt want to risk bringing TDP to power as TDP had many a times given false promises.
2.Chiranjeevi's PRP inspite of its initial charisma and rumoured promises to take in only graduates ended up with TDP rebels & failed to live upto people's expectation
3. The lack of a quality opposition would have made people to vote for the incumbent.
Irrespective of the the local reasons mentioned above which might have affected the election a moor change observed in this election is the electorate rose above the petty politics of caste and regional issues and the kept the big picture in mind .The demise of the regional parties in some regions clearly pointed to the fact.The electorate has given a decisive verdict to the UPA now it is upto them to deliever on its promises & bring about radical changes.Let hope it is a sign of better things to come.
For more statistics visit http://in.webdunia.com/Hindi/election/electionmap.htm
